Mark wrote: ↑
Wed Mar 11, 2020 5:14 pm
Bookworm wrote: ↑
Tue Mar 10, 2020 8:40 pm
The quotes I heard from Trump was that it's no worse than the flu - which is pretty much correct.
Except that it's not even remotely correct. Dr Anthony Fauci today in congressional testimony:
“I mean, people always say, well, the flu does this, the flu does that,” Fauci said. “The flu has a mortality of 0.1 percent. This has a mortality rate of 10 times that. That’s the reason I want to emphasize we have to stay ahead of the game in preventing this."
Where did the guy get THAT data? He certainly didn't get it from the CDC, or anyone else reputable.
There ARE no "good" statistics for mortality from Influenza. The thing is that most mortality from Influenza is caused by pneumonia, triggered by influenza. Thus, it's an influenza death.
According to the _actual_ CDC, using their information for the 2017-2018 "flu season", P&I was at or above the epidemic threshold for 16 consecutive weeks, with the peak mortality being 10.0% for _four consecutive weeks_.
Pneumonia and Influenza-Associated Mortality
CDC tracks pneumonia and influenza (P&I)–attributed deaths through CDC’s National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) Mortality Reporting System. The percentages of deaths attributed to P&I are released 2 weeks after the week of death to allow for collection of sufficient data to produce a stable P&I mortality percentage. During the 2017–18 season, based on data from NCHS, the proportion of deaths attributed to P&I was at or above the epidemic threshold**** for 16 consecutive weeks during the weeks ending December 23, 2017–April 7, 2018 (weeks 51–14). Nationally, mortality attributed to P&I exceeded 10.0% for 4 consecutive weeks, peaking at 10.8% during the week ending January 20, 2018 (week 3).
There is no way on God's green earth that they can claim 0.1% mortality rate, unless they completely throw out all of the actual P&I information, and go strictly with people that drop dead due to other immune system compromises. They're certainly using the P&I type data for SARS-Cov-2, (with the disease being COVID-19) as it causes a pneumonia, which is the killer.
So, the treatment for dealing with this is EXACTLY like the flu.
Wash your hands regularly, don't touch your face, sanitize public surfaces, keep a reasonable distance between you and other people, avoid people obviously sick, and if you're sick, stay away from people as much as possible!
I don't know what idiots are thinking this is special. It's _not_. It may have a higher mortality rate in the older section of the population (60 and up), but the disease spreads the same way as the common cold, as the flu, etc. Everything they've been saying on how to protect yourself and those around you is EXACTLY THE SAME AS THEY ALWAYS SAY FOR THE FLU!
Yes, I'm shouting. It's because people just can't seem to remember past their last meal. Long before this was going on, they were talking about washing your hands, don't touch your face, GET A FLU SHOT.
The only difference is that right now, we don't have an active vaccine. It's in the works. End of spring for clinical trials is the current estimate. As this is based on a vaccine developed from/for the original SARS, I expect the trials to be reasonably short, using a LOT of volunteers, to make sure there aren't any obvious side effects from the new formulation. (Even if there's a "side effect" like they claimed from the Swine Flu vaccine, that was 450 people out of 45 million vaccinated, and is better than the 10% P&I from the 2017/2018 flu season)